About The Tax Projection Tool
Every tax article quotes a headline rate (“you’re in the 22% bracket”) as if that one number tells you what you owe. It doesn’t. A two-earner couple with a rental and some stock sales, a 1099 contractor taking the QBI deduction, a family sitting just above the health-insurance subsidy cliff: none of them can read their real tax off a bracket table. Tax Projection Tool builds your 2026 tax the way it’s actually computed, income line by line with each type routed where it belongs, and follows every dollar from gross pay through deferrals, deductions, and credits to the tax you owe. Enter one W-2 or a dozen mixed income lines, take the standard deduction or itemize, and see federal, state, payroll, and self-employment tax resolve together, plus where you land against the 2026 ACA subsidy cliff.
What it calculates
Federal income tax on the post-OBBBA 2026 brackets, with long-term gains and qualified dividends stacked at the preferential 0/15/20% rates on top of your ordinary income
Eight income types entered line by line, including W-2 wages, self-employment, rental, retirement, interest and ordinary dividends, short-term gains, and long-term gains or qualified dividends, each carrying the right payroll, self-employment, and investment-tax treatment
The standard deduction or full itemization, with the 2026 SALT cap and its phasedown, the charitable floor and ceiling, the medical floor, and the mortgage-interest limit, flagging you the moment an entry crosses a cap
The QBI (Section 199A) deduction on your 1099 income, run through the SSTB and wage/UBIA phase-ins, with the new $400 minimum
Per-earner Social Security wage caps, so a two-earner couple gets each spouse’s own $184,500 base rather than one shared cap, plus the 0.9% Additional Medicare surtax combined per return
The Net Investment Income Tax, the 3.8% surtax on investment income over the threshold that most calculators leave out entirely
The Child Tax Credit and its refundable Additional Child Tax Credit, modeled the way the law splits them, so a lower-income household sees the amount actually usable, not just the headline $2,200
A simplified income tax for all 50 states plus DC, on each state’s enacted 2026 rates and brackets, with a few states modeled on their own mechanics where a flat base would be materially wrong
The 2026 ACA subsidy cliff, showing where your income sits against 400% of the federal poverty level and how much headroom you have before a dollar more costs you the entire premium tax credit
Where the numbers come from
Everything is published, primary-source tax data, and every figure traces to a named table. Federal brackets, the standard deduction, the QBI thresholds, and the Social Security wage base come from the IRS 2026 inflation update, Revenue Procedure 2025-32. The SALT cap, the charitable floor, and the 37%-bracket limit on itemized deductions come from the 2025 tax law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. State rates and standard deductions reflect each state’s enacted 2026 law, including the retroactive 2026 changes in Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Utah. The poverty figures behind the ACA cliff are the 2025 HHS guidelines, the set that governs 2026 coverage. There is no proprietary model and no hidden adjustment; the methodology section at the bottom of the tool lists every source and constant.
How to use it
Set your filing status, then add your income one line at a time. Pick the type, enter the amount, and for a joint return tag each wage or self-employment line to earner 1 or earner 2 so the Social Security caps apply correctly. Add your pre-tax deferrals and number of qualifying children. Take the standard deduction, or switch to Itemize to enter SALT, mortgage interest, charitable gifts, and medical costs, and the tool warns you the moment an entry crosses a 2026 cap. Pick your state to add the state estimate, and set your household size and region for the ACA cliff check. Every figure recomputes as you type, and a full worksheet shows each step from gross income down to the tax you owe. It’s an estimate for planning, not a filing tool.
Frequently asked questions
What does this tool calculate?
Your projected 2026 tax: federal income tax on the post-OBBBA brackets, the standard or itemized deduction with 2026 caps, the QBI deduction, Social Security and Medicare payroll tax with per-earner wage caps, the 0.9% Additional Medicare surtax, the Net Investment Income Tax, and the Child Tax Credit with its refundable portion. It adds a simplified income tax for all 50 states plus DC, and shows where your household sits against the 2026 ACA subsidy cliff. It’s an estimate, not a filing tool.
Why is it a projection and not my exact tax?
Because it works from the income and deductions you enter, on published 2026 rates, without the full detail of a return. It deliberately leaves out a few things, including the AMT, the Earned Income Tax Credit, the new OBBBA senior, tips, and overtime deductions, and capital-loss carryforwards, rather than half-building them. For most households it lands very close, but it’s built to estimate directionally with, not to file.
How accurate is the state number?
State tax is an estimate, not a return. Most states run off one flat base through their 2026 brackets. A few, including South Carolina and Utah, are modeled with their own mechanics. States still vary in ways the tool doesn’t fully capture: some start from federal AGI and others from taxable income, most don’t follow the federal QBI deduction, local income taxes aren’t included, and several tax capital gains or retirement income differently. Treat the state figure as a close estimate.
Why does it show the ACA subsidy cliff?
The enhanced premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025, so the 400%-of-poverty subsidy cliff is back as of January 1, 2026. A household one dollar over 400% of the federal poverty level gets no premium tax credit at all. The tool shows where your income sits against that cliff and your headroom, using the 2025 HHS poverty guidelines that govern 2026 coverage. It’s a cliff estimator, not a full subsidy calculator.
Is it free, and where does my data go?
Free, and nowhere. It’s a single HTML file that runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or stored.
Is this financial or tax advice?
No. These are projections based on published rates and the numbers you enter, not advice and not a filing. Use the tool to see how a raise, a Roth conversion, a home sale, or a move across state lines would change your total tax, then confirm anything major with a qualified professional.
This tool is for educational and planning purposes only. Figures are projections based on published rates, not recommendations. Confirm any major financial decision with a fee-only (ideally, a Flat-Fee) financial advisor.