Feb. 14, 2025

Has the FIRE Formula Changed? Why 100% Index Funds Isn’t the Answer

Show Notes

Is a 100% index fund portfolio no longer the FIRE formula? The market has changed, and maybe your portfolio allocation needs to change with it. With index funds at all-time-high prices and price-to-earnings ratios at an eye-watering 29, you might be feeling a bit worried about whether your FIRE will last or you’ll even make it to FIRE in the first place. You’re not crazy; Scott is feeling the same way, too.

Recently, Scott decided to make a move much of the FIRE community would protest—he sold 40% of his index fund portfolio to reallocate to real estate. Why did he do it now, even as a strong index fund believer? On the other hand, why is Mindy sticking with her stock and index fund portfolio, ready to ride out whatever potential market downturn could be coming our way?

Scott explains, in detail, why real estate is a better choice for him at the moment, the reason prudent FIRE chasers should question the conventional wisdom of a 100% index fund portfolio, and why his new rental property could act as a hedge against a significant market downturn. If Scott is selling his index funds, should you?

In This Episode We Cover

The historical price-to-earnings ratios making index funds a riskier bet

How holding 100% index funds could throw your FIRE off by a decade

The optimal portfolio for retiring early on the four percent rule

Is real estate a safer bet than stocks in 2025?

Real estate cash flow vs. selling stocks for income and why one is much easier to actualize

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Mindy on BiggerPockets

Scott on BiggerPockets

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